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My alma mater University of Missouri’s Food and Ag Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) released “Potential Impacts of Proposed E15 Expansion and SRE Reallocation Provisions of HR 1346” this week.  Its worth a read. It discusses the impact of bill HR 1346 that recently passed the house, should it become law.  Big headline is this bill…

I’ve been working for a while on this one — a soybean procurement basin simulation I call Morgan. There are ZERO soybean price inputs to this model. Supply, demand, and transportation costs steer Morgan’s weekly simulation. Morgan is a work in progress, but it’s advanced enough to start sharing and providing client value. This visual…

Amazon’s 2026 CAPEX budget = $200 billion Alphabet = $175-$185 billion Meta = $115-$135 billion Farm gate value of ALL the corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, barley, and oats produced in the US in 2025? $132 billion. For Everything. Any one of these companies could buy the entire row crop output of the USA with…

But both ADM and Bunge mentioned robust meal protein demand during their earnings calls this week. The story is building in the meal market. Thanks for reading Oilseed Impacts. New editions drop weekly. Don’t forget to sign up here or on Linkedin.

Something has to give. Which will it be? A) Crush slowdownB) Oil exports increaseC) Biofuel demand finally gets going Thanks for reading Oilseed Impacts. New editions drop weekly. Don’t forget to sign up here or on Linkedin.

But South American harvest is upon us. We need to sell another 13 MMT and ship 25 MMT to hit USDA estimates. With China meeting their purchase volume commitment already, the next 13 MMT of sales will be tough.

Now that the dust has started to settle, here’s a couple soy complex items I noticed, with some additional color from Oilseeds Crushings data. Thanks for reading Oilseed Impacts. New editions drop weekly. Don’t forget to sign up here or on Linkedin.

Oct bean oil biofuel demand – 1.006 bil lbs.Nov RIN generations down m-o-m, suggesting a reduction from Oct.Dec, no reason to see a meaningful change. Leaving Nov-Dec usage unchanged vs Oct, that leaves Jan-Sep to pick up the slack to hit the USDA estimate of 15.5 bil lbs for the year. Here’s what that looks…

New sales of ~170k, brings outstanding sales to ~4700k mt. ~13 weeks of meal exports sold not shipped (using 360k avg). At current crush, we are building oil stocks like crazy (last chart), and US oil isn’t competitive into major import markets like India. If the meal is sold, and we don’t have oil demand…

Record monthly crush rate continues. Record soybean meal export sales pace. Weak soybean oil export book. No clarity on 2026 RVO. What could possibly go wrong?