Subscribe to receive updates in your inbox

  • Delta Farmers Need More Incentive To Sell Corn This Fall

    Corn futures suck, Sep/Dec futures spreads are at big carries and August barge freight offers are expensive. All this combines to tell the US Delta Farmer to store, not sell corn this fall. Is that the right message? I think no. We have tight old crop stocks & a strong export sales book to hit. The market needs Delta…

  • 10 Losers From EPA’s Recent RVO Announcement

    EPA scored a big win for US Production Agriculture and the Biofuels industry last week. Yesterday I shared thoughts on 10 winners from the EPA RVO announcement. Today, let’s look at some losers.  #1 Soybean Oil Food Refineries   Soy crushers are arguably the biggest winners here overall.  That said, soy crushers whose oil offtake…

  • 10 Winners From EPA’s Recent RVO Announcement

    Friday’s EPA RVO announcement was a big deal for crop based biofuels.  Find below, in no particular order, 10 of the winners.  Some are obvious, some not so much.  Enjoy!  #1 US Biodiesel over RD  Much has been made about US Biodiesel’s decline. The EPA’s move realigned policy to support biodiesel in spades. Here’s why.…

  • Watch out! WASDE May Be Underestimating Food/Feed Bean Oil Demand

    So. Many. Headlines. about US Biofuels policy. But I see a story in the food oil balance sheet….. I think the USDA is underestimating Soybean Oil demand in the Food, Feed & Industrial category of WASDE. Follow along in the images attached. First chart is supply of major non soy/canola veg oils in the US Oct-Mar…

  • Markets Aren’t Efficient. Traders Can Help.

    Sometimes words fail. Look at these Bloomberg charts. Republicans are bearish inflation. Democrats are bullish. And the difference of opinion is HUGE. Smart folks are represented in both lines of these charts. But a lot of them are wrong on inflation because political bias is either clouding their analysis or simply replacing it. This has real world…

  • Loss Of Export Markets Have A Big Impact On Southern Row Croppers

    Which row crops in which states have the most to lose in a trade war? With inauguration day Monday, here’s a few graphics showing the varying levels of export dependency across row crops and states in the USA.  These graphics provide a roadmap for the regions and crops most vulnerable to trade disruptions. The southern states…

  • Optionality.

    What story do you see in these two images?  One shows different feedstocks used to produce biodiesel and renewable diesel.  The other shows the ingredients list on a bag of tortilla chips. As a trader I see two products, each with their own unique optionality around feedstock choice. In economics jargon, this is a manifestation of Arbitrage…

  • Maybe The US Needs Bean Oil Exports More Than I Thought

    Here’s a little more color on the canola oil imports vs bean oil exports topic, and a chart that tells the story… Bean oil has traded at or below palm oil since about May of this year, encouraging exports in style. Bean oil exports could be the most dynamic # to watch in USDA’s WASDE this…

  • Sometimes the Market is not the Market it seems…

    There’s a long list of “what ifs” that support a bullish soybean oil thesis. 2025 RVO increase, 45Z import exclusion, Indo B40, discount to palm/massive exports. Eventually some of these may give us a rally.  But man, I’m not feeling it today like I was a month ago…  Maybe bean oil is cheap because it’s the…

  • Future Macro Trends Support Delta Crush Expansion

    In this 4th of 5 posts on US Delta crush, let’s look at the implications of macro soybean trends. This is data from 2024 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook’s projections to 2033. You can access the report here. Takeaways:1.        Slow growth in both meat & meal demand.  ~1%/yr, vs 2-3% the prior decade.2.        Crush expansion up 49 Mmt by 2033.  ~1/3rd in China, balance…