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  • 10 Winners From EPA’s Recent RVO Announcement

    Friday’s EPA RVO announcement was a big deal for crop based biofuels.  Find below, in no particular order, 10 of the winners.  Some are obvious, some not so much.  Enjoy!  #1 US Biodiesel over RD  Much has been made about US Biodiesel’s decline. The EPA’s move realigned policy to support biodiesel in spades. Here’s why.…

  • Watch out! WASDE May Be Underestimating Food/Feed Bean Oil Demand

    So. Many. Headlines. about US Biofuels policy. But I see a story in the food oil balance sheet….. I think the USDA is underestimating Soybean Oil demand in the Food, Feed & Industrial category of WASDE. Follow along in the images attached. First chart is supply of major non soy/canola veg oils in the US Oct-Mar…

  • Markets Aren’t Efficient. Traders Can Help.

    Sometimes words fail. Look at these Bloomberg charts. Republicans are bearish inflation. Democrats are bullish. And the difference of opinion is HUGE. Smart folks are represented in both lines of these charts. But a lot of them are wrong on inflation because political bias is either clouding their analysis or simply replacing it. This has real world…

  • Loss Of Export Markets Have A Big Impact On Southern Row Croppers

    Which row crops in which states have the most to lose in a trade war? With inauguration day Monday, here’s a few graphics showing the varying levels of export dependency across row crops and states in the USA.  These graphics provide a roadmap for the regions and crops most vulnerable to trade disruptions. The southern states…

  • Optionality.

    What story do you see in these two images?  One shows different feedstocks used to produce biodiesel and renewable diesel.  The other shows the ingredients list on a bag of tortilla chips. As a trader I see two products, each with their own unique optionality around feedstock choice. In economics jargon, this is a manifestation of Arbitrage…

  • Maybe The US Needs Bean Oil Exports More Than I Thought

    Here’s a little more color on the canola oil imports vs bean oil exports topic, and a chart that tells the story… Bean oil has traded at or below palm oil since about May of this year, encouraging exports in style. Bean oil exports could be the most dynamic # to watch in USDA’s WASDE this…

  • Sometimes the Market is not the Market it seems…

    There’s a long list of “what ifs” that support a bullish soybean oil thesis. 2025 RVO increase, 45Z import exclusion, Indo B40, discount to palm/massive exports. Eventually some of these may give us a rally.  But man, I’m not feeling it today like I was a month ago…  Maybe bean oil is cheap because it’s the…

  • Future Macro Trends Support Delta Crush Expansion

    In this 4th of 5 posts on US Delta crush, let’s look at the implications of macro soybean trends. This is data from 2024 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook’s projections to 2033. You can access the report here. Takeaways:1.        Slow growth in both meat & meal demand.  ~1%/yr, vs 2-3% the prior decade.2.        Crush expansion up 49 Mmt by 2033.  ~1/3rd in China, balance…

  • Changing Soybean Meal Freight Spreads Driving Delta Crush Econs

    As mentioned in my previous 2 posts, a lot has changed since the wave of Delta soy crush closures circa 2000.  I’m making the case for another look at soy crush expansion in the Mississippi Delta. Post 1 highlighted the Delta’s 235% increase in bean production to 318 mil bushels. It showed the Delta has…

  • Can Delta Soybean Meal Compete??

    This is Part 2 in a series taking a fresh look at soy crush expansion in the US Delta.  To recap, from 1997-2003 five Delta soy crush plants shuttered. I think things have changed and smart Delta crush expansion could work today. Here are the 5 supporting factors I’m discussing:  1)  Local soybean supply growth…