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As mentioned in my previous 2 posts, a lot has changed since the wave of Delta soy crush closures circa 2000.  I’m making the case for another look at soy crush expansion in the Mississippi Delta. Post 1 highlighted the Delta’s 235% increase in bean production to 318 mil bushels. It showed the Delta has…

This is Part 2 in a series taking a fresh look at soy crush expansion in the US Delta.  To recap, from 1997-2003 five Delta soy crush plants shuttered. I think things have changed and smart Delta crush expansion could work today. Here are the 5 supporting factors I’m discussing:  1)  Local soybean supply growth…

When discussing a US Delta Soy Crush investment thesis, several industry experts whom I respect shared this sentiment with me. And I understand why. From 1997 through 2003 five soybean plants in the US Delta closed (Helena AR, Little Rock AR, Clarksdale MS, Vicksburg MS, Marks MS). It’s a season burned into the memory of…

Need another bullish factor for US Ag commodity prices? Our customers are profitable. Have a look at this graphic. Bars = Adjusted EBITDA for Pilgrim’s Pride’s US business (source: Pilgrim’s quarterly reports)Blue Line = Average fresh whole chicken prices in US Cities (source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)Green Line = CBOT corn and soybean meal futures expressed…

I’m still looking at reasons to NOT be bearish ag commodities headed into the US fall. Here’s another reason…SOYBEAN OIL. Expect US soy crush records this fall.  That plus uncertainty around the 2025 45Z/Producers Tax Credit implementation makes a Q4/Q1 bean oil stock build not a question of if, but how much.  As a result, the market…

Look, it’s hard to be a bull in today’s ag market.  I’m with you.  That said, here’s a little food for thought…. Check out these screenshots of 2024 crop budgets from the Mississippi State University and University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Generally speaking, it takes $5 corn to cover production costs. And it takes $11-$12 beans. Now look at the attached…

Until recently Commercial Ag could rely on a few trends setting the backdrop of any trade strategy or price discussion: 1. The rise of China2. RFS style policies driving biofuel demand3. Declining interest rates, and4. Supply growth via South America corn/soy and Mal/Indo palm oil. Today, China demand is plateauing, the RFS is ineffectual, and…

Buried in USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report from late March is this little nugget. The three states with the largest percentage decline in corn acres….AR, LA, MS. Collectively the Delta is down 25% or 570k corn acres. The big acreage winner is soybeans (up 310k acres) followed by cotton (+150k) and rice (+40k). Delta farmers are…

Soybean farmers in the US Delta recently wrapped up their second consecutive harvest with record low Mississippi River levels. With limited local crush capacity, nearly all Delta soybeans travel south via the river to export. Low water the last two falls curtailed barge capacities, making logistics prohibitively expensive, if even available at all. The three…

There is no shortage of suspects when one looks for the culprit behind Chicago bean oil’s 50% fall since April 22.  The disappointing RFS announcement last year was a gut punch.  Incredible increases in US UCO imports didn’t help.  Record US bean crush volumes share some guilt too. And while citing these things as bearish drivers feels right….it…