Fundamental insights to inform capital, operational, and trading decisions in your Ag/Renewable commodity business.
Invest for the next soybean market, not the last one. Morgan Soy Simulator site launch! See you at AFOA KC this week!
After months of work, Morgan Soy Simulator’s own site is finally launching today! If you are headed to AFOA in KC this week, reach out. I’d love to show it to you. Check it out at morgan.dnscommodities.com. Request access and you can see the results of a few scenarios I’ve already built to showcase Morgan’s…
Too many beans in the Delta, not enough in Iowa…what to do.
About a month ago I mentioned that the US Delta (Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana) soybean crop was bigger than the export market could handle, that September Delta bean inventory would likely top 100 mil bushels, and to expect local pressure on prices. This call aged well. The second image shows a few local Delta bean markets.…
Delta Soybean Harvest Poised To Outrun NOLA Exports Through Early October, Potentially Pressing Basis.
The Delta states (AR, MS, LA) have a record soybean crop ready to roll. 388 mil bushels, 100+ mil bushels more YOY. Acres are up big, and dryland yields are boosting already solid irrigated production. Now what to do with it? Current export sales for this fall stand at about 12 MMT as of late…
HR 1346, FAPRI’s View, & My Thoughts
My alma mater University of Missouri’s Food and Ag Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) released “Potential Impacts of Proposed E15 Expansion and SRE Reallocation Provisions of HR 1346” this week. Its worth a read. It discusses the impact of bill HR 1346 that recently passed the house, should it become law. Big headline is this bill…
Introducing Morgan. US Soy Simulator.
UPDATE 10/6/2026 – Morgan’s own site is LIVE at morgan.dnscommodities.com. See my latest post on Morgan here. I’ve been working for a while on this one — a soybean procurement basin simulation I call Morgan. There are ZERO soybean price inputs to this model. Supply, demand, and transportation costs steer Morgan’s weekly simulation. Morgan is…
US Crop Values Pale vs Tech CAPEX
Amazon’s 2026 CAPEX budget = $200 billion Alphabet = $175-$185 billion Meta = $115-$135 billion Farm gate value of ALL the corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, barley, and oats produced in the US in 2025? $132 billion. For Everything. Any one of these companies could buy the entire row crop output of the USA with…