Introducing Morgan. US Soy Simulator.

I’ve been working for a while on this one — a soybean procurement basin simulation I call Morgan.

There are ZERO soybean price inputs to this model.

Supply, demand, and transportation costs steer Morgan’s weekly simulation.

Morgan is a work in progress, but it’s advanced enough to start sharing and providing client value.

This visual shows Morgan’s estimate for farm gate value by county, each week of the 2024/25 crop year. The values are expressed as a relationship to the Decatur, IL soy crush price set at $0.00.

Here’s a link to the full 2 minute simulation:

I set out to create Morgan because I saw a persistent need for forward guidance on cash market dynamics.

Most service offerings in the soy analyst space focus on a few things:

1. Historical supply and demand.
2. Price and basis history.
3. Historical crush margin analysis.
4. Forward guesses on crush/export demand.

And while valuable, for many this doesn’t answer the real questions. How will changes in market fundamentals (supply, demand, transportation) impact ME? What are my risks and opportunities given an assumed future market state?

That’s the goal of Morgan. A customized model that provides a framework for exploring county and plant level impacts to future market changes.

Here’s a few examples of some questions Morgan can answer:

1. Which major crusher is most at risk to the impacts of El Nino?
   • Morgan’s bean supply is built up from the county level, allowing for precise modeling of production scenarios.
2. If Brazil has a crop failure and US exports increase 20% next year, how does that impact crush margins at my plant in Iowa?
   • As demand shifts, Morgan flexes the transportation networks to move supply based on the least net cost scenario, while keeping all demand sinks supplied.
3. If I build a plant in Leflore county Mississippi, what can I expect to be my soybean price vs my competitors?
   • Morgan is built to add or remove demand sinks and model the impact.
4. How much price competitiveness will I lose by expanding my crush by 25%?
   • Morgan estimates every plant’s crush volume based on a combination of USDA and estimated plant throughput capacity.
5. Which plants win and which plants lose when diesel rallies to $7/gallon?
   • Morgan has built in fuel surcharge tables tied to diesel prices.
6. How does a river closure impact soybean prices at my plant?
   • Morgan has the capability to close the river by section to model the price impact on the marketplace.

If you are interested in this type of analytical work, reach out. I’m excited to get to work with you unlocking Morgan’s capabilities.