Posts by Duane

“Destination crush doesn’t work.”

When discussing a US Delta Soy Crush investment thesis, several industry experts whom I respect shared this sentiment with me. And I understand why. From 1997 through 2003 five soybean…

Bullish Fundamental – Meat Margins

Need another bullish factor for US Ag commodity prices? Our customers are profitable. Have a look at this graphic. Bars = Adjusted EBITDA for Pilgrim’s Pride’s US business (source: Pilgrim’s quarterly reports)Blue…

Bullish Fundamental – Soybean Oil Comparative Value

I’m still looking at reasons to NOT be bearish ag commodities headed into the US fall. Here’s another reason…SOYBEAN OIL. Expect US soy crush records this fall.  That plus uncertainty around…

Bullish Fundamental – US Cost of Production

Look, it’s hard to be a bull in today’s ag market.  I’m with you.  That said, here’s a little food for thought…. Check out these screenshots of 2024 crop budgets from…

Ag Policy for Ag Policy’s Sake

Until recently Commercial Ag could rely on a few trends setting the backdrop of any trade strategy or price discussion: 1. The rise of China2. RFS style policies driving biofuel…

Corn Acres Down Big in the Delta

Buried in USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report from late March is this little nugget. The three states with the largest percentage decline in corn acres….AR, LA, MS. Collectively the Delta is…

Structural Challenges for the US Delta Soybean Market

Soybean farmers in the US Delta recently wrapped up their second consecutive harvest with record low Mississippi River levels. With limited local crush capacity, nearly all Delta soybeans travel south…

Bean Oil Rally Culprits Are NOT What You Think!

There is no shortage of suspects when one looks for the culprit behind Chicago bean oil’s 50% fall since April 22.  The disappointing RFS announcement last year was a gut punch.  Incredible…

Hail State!

A Big Thank You! to Dr Will Maples for inviting me to speak to his Financial and Commodity Futures Marketing class at Mississippi State University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences yesterday….