INTRODUCING: Oilseed Impacts Newsletter

Welcome to the launch of the weekly Oilseed Impacts newsletter, where I share my viewpoints on the global oilseed landscape.  The first several editions will explore the 8 major oilseeds produced and crushed in the USA.  Don’t forget to sign up here, or on LinkedIn.

RFS Impact On US Oilseeds, 20 Years In.

Congress passed the Renewable Fuel Standard in 2005, without question the most impactful piece of ag policy in our generation. 

RFS ushered in massive increases in ethanol and biobased diesel consumption.  These increases shifted crop balance sheets away from exports and drove domestic investment in biofuel value chains. 

In the Oilseed complex, vegetable oil consumed in biobased diesel production surged to 22 bil lbs in 2024, from effectively zero in 2005.

The domestic veg oil market responded to this demand. 

This chart shows production of the 8 major US vegetable oils in 2005 vs 2024.

Currently over 40 bil lbs, US veg oil production is up 45% since the passing of the RFS.

But not all Oilseeds are rising with the tide.

The chart below shows % changes for each of the 8 major oils produced in the US.

Four of the 8 oils we produce domestically saw reductions in production.  Some quite severe.

BUT WHY???

How can we nearly double vegetable oil demand in the US, raising prices dramatically in the process, and STILL see production drops in half the oils we produce?

That is the first question I plan to tackle in Oilseed Impacts.

Over the next several weeks read along as I discuss each of the 8 vegetable oils produced in the US.

I’ll explore their background, what is really driving their economics, and my view on where they might be headed in the future.

I have a lot to learn on some of these oils (looking at you SAFFLOWER). So if you have knowledge and are so inclined, reach out, I’d love to hear your point of view. It will just make this thing better.

In the first edition I’m tackling what looks to be the biggest loser, Cottonseed Oil. With supply down 65% in the last 20 years, it clearly has some serious headwinds. It hits the press next Monday.

Thanks for reading Oilseed Impacts.

New editions drop weekly.

Don’t forget to sign up here, or on LinkedIn.