Delta Farmers Need More Incentive To Sell Corn This Fall

Corn futures suck, Sep/Dec futures spreads are at big carries and August barge freight offers are expensive. All this combines to tell the US Delta Farmer to store, not sell corn this fall. Is that the right message?

I think no. We have tight old crop stocks & a strong export sales book to hit. The market needs Delta bushels to move at harvest. Today’s market structure ain’t getting that done.

Look at the Delta harvest SnD with me and see what I mean.

The first chart captures corn harvest pressure by showing weekly and cumulative harvested bushels netted against NOLA corn exports. It shows us a below average stocks build….and I’m using record 2025 corn yields. This doesn’t look like a market that should be discouraging sellers.

The next table shows Delta fall production and compares it to storage capacity. Again, using record 2025 corn yields. Its an average corn crop with limited pressure on storage. Keep in mind this market had NO RIVER for multiple recent falls due to low water. Temporary storage solutions like baggers and piles are already here and ready to use.

The final page is today’s market snapshot as compared to July 27 of the last 4 years. Comparatively speaking futures are low, spreads are wide, barge freight is expensive, and we have a tight Sep 1 carry in.

Delta farmers WILL NOT SELL CORN with this kind of market in front of them. They have storage, this region has plenty of chickens and catfish to feed locally, and they can sell beans for cash later in the harvest.

My view is Delta corn movement will be disappointing this fall. Barge Freight, CIF Basis and maybe even U/Z spreads will need to react to encourage movement this August and early September.

What do you think?